The Measure of Global Warming

//The Measure of Global Warming

The Measure of Global Warming

Carbon-dioxide concentrations hit their highest level in 4m years.

At noon on May 4th the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere around the Mount Loa Observatory in Hawaii hit 400 parts per million (ppm). The average for the day was 399.73 and researches at the observatory expect this figure, too, to exceed 400 in the next few days.

The last time such values prevailed on Earth was in the Pliocene epoch, 4m years ago, when jungles covered northern Canada.

There have already been a few readings above 400ppm elsewhere- those taken over the Arctic Ocean in May 2012, for example- but they were exceptional. Mauna Loa is the benchmark for carbon dioxide measurement because Hawaii is so far from large concentrations of humanity. The Arctic, by contrast, gets a lot of polluted air from Europe and North America.

The concentration of carbon dioxide peaks in may, falls until October as plant growth in the northern hemisphere’s summer absorbs the gas, and then goes up again during winter and spring. This year the average reading for the whole month will probably also reach 400ppm, according to Pieter Tans who is in charge of monitoring at Mauna Loa, and the seasonally adjusted annual figure will reach 400ppm in the spring of 2014 or 2015.

Mauna Loa’s readings are one for the world’s longest-running measurement series. The first, made in March 1958, was 315ppm. That means they have risen by a quarter in 55 years. In the early 1960’s they were going up by 0.7ppm a year. The rate of increase is now 2.1ppm- three times as fast- reflecting the relentless rise in green house-gas emissions.

As a rule of thumb, carbon dioxide concentrations will have to be redistricted to about 450ppm if global warming is to be kept below 2 degrees. Because carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for decades, artificial emissions of the gas would have to be cut immediately, and then fall to zero by 2075, in order to achieve 450ppm. There seems no chance of that.

Emissions are still going up. At current rates, the Mauna Loa reading will rise above 450ppm in 2037.


Source: The Economist May 2013
Climate Change


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